IFK Goteborg 0-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg host BK Hacken at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
BK Hacken — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Goteborg at 1.50 PPG versus BK Hacken's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, IFK Goteborg have won 2, BK Hacken 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 4–2 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IFK Goteborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BK Hacken in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Goteborg 48% and BK Hacken 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | BK Hacken 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.43 xG and BK Hacken 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.886 / defence 1.214 | BK Hacken attack 1.183 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.328. Data: 34 IFK Goteborg games / 34 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 29% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 49%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | BK Hacken 2.04. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | BK Hacken 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 29% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.43 / BK Hacken 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.886 / def 1.214 | BK Hacken attack 1.183 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.91
BK Hacken xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken part of?
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 29% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 0 | BK Hacken 3W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IFK Goteborg's attack rating (0.89) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
29%
3.46
22%
4.50
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
3.33
1.91
BK Hacken xG
3.46
29%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
4%
23.29
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.91 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 22W 13D 25L from 60 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 36W 13D 11L across 60 games — 2.02 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 13W 9D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.30 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 73%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 36W 13D 11L in their last 60 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.43 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when BK Hacken won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 3, BK Hacken have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, BK Hacken 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (IFK Goteborg) and 57% (BK Hacken).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of IFK Goteborg's games and 67% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 57% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out IFK Goteborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.43 xG and BK Hacken 1.91 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. BK Hacken landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.89 / defence 1.21 against BK Hacken attack 1.18 / defence 1.18, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 29% | Draw 22% | BK Hacken 49%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, BK Hacken 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.