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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out AIK Stockholm 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat AIK Stockholm 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.47 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.95 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.79 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 49% | Draw 27% | AIK Stockholm 24%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, AIK Stockholm 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with IFK Goteborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights