IF Elfsborg 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Vasteras SK FK travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Elfsborg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Borås Arena, IF Elfsborg have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, IF Elfsborg have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IF Elfsborg, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 53% versus Vasteras SK FK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 64% | Vasteras SK FK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.05 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.202 / defence 1.018 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.718 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.253. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 IF Elfsborg games / 28 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 63% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 15%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Vasteras SK FK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 63% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.05 / Vasteras SK FK 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.202 / def 1.018 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.718 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (63%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Vasteras SK FK xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 63% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.20x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.64
15%
6.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.97
0.92
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
6.53
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
13%
7.80
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
50.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.92 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 32W 9D 17L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 24W 11D 23L from 58 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.81 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 2.07 PPG from 29 outings (18W 6D 5L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 11W 4D 14L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.26 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 32W 9D 17L in their last 58 games (1.81 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 24W 11D 23L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.07 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.28 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
0
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK?
From 3 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 2-2 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 55%, Vasteras SK FK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for IF Elfsborg and 55% for Vasteras SK FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 48% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 55% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.05 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.92 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.20 / defence 1.02 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.21, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 63% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 15%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 64%, Vasteras SK FK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.81 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.