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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Osters IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg beat Osters IF 5-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.66 xG and Osters IF 1.20 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.12 / defence 1.22 against Osters IF attack 0.72 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 48% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 27%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Osters IF 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Osters IF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.46 PPG, Osters IF 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights