IF Elfsborg 2-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orgryte IS make the trip to Borås Arena to face IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena.
Orgryte IS have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward IF Elfsborg. A 1.30 PPG lead over Orgryte IS (1.90 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for IF Elfsborg, 0 for Orgryte IS and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 54% versus Orgryte IS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 57% | Orgryte IS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.28 xG and Orgryte IS 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.127 / defence 0.673 | Orgryte IS attack 0.729 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.326. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 0.673 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 IF Elfsborg games / 26 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 74% | Draw 17% | Orgryte IS 9%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | Orgryte IS 11.11. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 40% | Orgryte IS 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 74% | Draw 17% | Orgryte IS 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 43% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.28 / Orgryte IS 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.127 / def 0.673 | Orgryte IS attack 0.729 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Orgryte IS xG
43%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 74% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS?
Record (1 meetings): IF Elfsborg 0W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.73x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 3-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
74%
1.35
17%
5.94
9%
11.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.93
0.65
Orgryte IS xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.94
17%
Draw
11.26
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
10%
9.81
Win to Nil
39%
2.58
1%
110.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.65 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 23W 14D 19L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS's form line: 20W 15D 21L from 56 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.34 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.75 PPG from 28 outings (14W 7D 7L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 9W 6D 13L from 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.59 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 23W 14D 19L in their last 56 games (1.48 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Orgryte IS away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.75 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
0
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS?
From 2 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 1, Orgryte IS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 54%, Orgryte IS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IF Elfsborg) and 57% (Orgryte IS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 50% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 57% of Orgryte IS's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Orgryte IS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Orgryte IS 2-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.28 xG and Orgryte IS 0.65 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.13 / defence 0.67 against Orgryte IS attack 0.73 / defence 1.48, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 74% | Draw 17% | Orgryte IS 9%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 57%, Orgryte IS 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.48 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.