IF Elfsborg 1-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 4 as IF Elfsborg welcome Orebro SK to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 June 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.10 xG and Orebro SK 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.060 / defence 1.228 | Orebro SK attack 0.951 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 0.978 / away 1.476. Data: 3 IF Elfsborg games / 3 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 21% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 49%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 4.76 | Draw 3.23 | Orebro SK 2.04. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 21% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.10 / Orebro SK 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.060 / def 1.228 | Orebro SK attack 0.951 / def 1.057 | league avg home 0.978 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Orebro SK xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 June 2020 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 21% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.06x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
21%
4.82
31%
3.27
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.82
1.72
Orebro SK xG
4.82
21%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
4%
26.98
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.72 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Pre-Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: IF Elfsborg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Orebro SK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2021, when Orebro SK 2-3 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 4, as IF Elfsborg and Orebro SK drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.10 xG and Orebro SK 1.72 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against Orebro SK attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 21% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 49%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.