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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF finished level at 2-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.41 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.08 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 44% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 29%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.82 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights