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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF finished level at 2-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.32 xG and Malmo FF 2.02 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.26 / defence 1.22 against Malmo FF attack 1.19 / defence 0.76, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 25% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 53%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 64%, Malmo FF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Malmo FF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights