IF Elfsborg 3-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 18 October 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for IF Elfsborg, 1.00 for Kalmar FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 61% versus Kalmar FF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 48% | Kalmar FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.61 xG and Kalmar FF 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.071 / defence 1.168 | Kalmar FF attack 0.875 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.382. Kalmar FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 IF Elfsborg games / 23 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 40% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 32%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Kalmar FF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 60% | Kalmar FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 40% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.61 / Kalmar FF 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.071 / def 1.168 | Kalmar FF attack 0.875 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Kalmar FF xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 October 2020 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 40% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.88x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
40%
2.48
28%
3.59
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.02
1.41
Kalmar FF xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
6%
15.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.41 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 8W 12D 3L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF's form line: 4W 7D 12L from 23 games, 0.83 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (3W 7D 1L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 3D 5L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.09 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 8W 12D 3L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 4W 7D 12L in their last 23 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Kalmar FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.45 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.09 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 9 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
5
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 64%, Kalmar FF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (IF Elfsborg) and 54% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of IF Elfsborg's games and 54% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 54% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Kalmar FF 3-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.61 xG and Kalmar FF 1.41 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.07 / defence 1.17 against Kalmar FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.36, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 40% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 32%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 48%, Kalmar FF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.