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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IFK Norrkoping.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg beat IFK Norrkoping 2-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.04 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.60 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.17 / defence 1.30, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 48% | Draw 21% | IFK Norrkoping 30%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, IFK Norrkoping 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights