IF Elfsborg 0-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 39%, yet in-form IF Elfsborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 27 September 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Goteborg have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 7D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in IF Elfsborg's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — IF Elfsborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, IFK Goteborg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Elfsborg 62% and IFK Goteborg 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 48% | IFK Goteborg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.37 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.171 / defence 1.263 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.869 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.393. Data: 21 IF Elfsborg games / 21 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 32% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 39%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | IFK Goteborg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Elfsborg (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | IFK Goteborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Sep 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 32% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.37 / IFK Goteborg 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.171 / def 1.263 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.869 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.53
IFK Goteborg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 27 September 2020 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 0 IFK Goteborg.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 32% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.17x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.87x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
32%
3.11
28%
3.52
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.89
1.53
IFK Goteborg xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.33
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.53 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 8W 11D 2L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 3W 11D 7L from 21 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (3W 6D 1L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 7D 1L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.19 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; IFK Goteborg in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 8W 11D 2L in their last 21 games (1.67 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 3W 11D 7L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.50 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
IF Elfsborg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 8, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for IF Elfsborg, 80% for IFK Goteborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IF Elfsborg) and 50% (IFK Goteborg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of IF Elfsborg's games and 80% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 50% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IF Elfsborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg finished level at 0-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.37 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.53 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IFK Goteborg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.17 / defence 1.26 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.87 / defence 1.05, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 32% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 39%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 48%, IFK Goteborg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.