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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out IFK Goteborg 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg beat IFK Goteborg 4-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.80 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.39 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.27 / defence 1.06 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 47% | Draw 23% | IFK Goteborg 30%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 59%, IFK Goteborg 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.61 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights