IF Elfsborg 2-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 2 as IF Elfsborg welcome Hammarby FF to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 17 June 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 0.71 xG and Hammarby FF 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 0.986 / defence 1.150 | Hammarby FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.622 / away 1.258. Data: 1 IF Elfsborg games / 1 Hammarby FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 18% | Draw 37% | Hammarby FF 45%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 5.56 | Draw 2.70 | Hammarby FF 2.22. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Jun 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 18% | Draw 37% | Hammarby FF 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG IF Elfsborg 0.71 / Hammarby FF 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 0.986 / def 1.150 | Hammarby FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.622 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Hammarby FF xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 17 June 2020 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 18% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 45% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 0.99x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
18%
5.70
37%
2.67
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
1.94
1.23
Hammarby FF xG
5.70
18%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
5%
19.49
22%
4.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 17.7 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.23 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Pre-Season
Hammarby FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF finished level at 2-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 0.71 xG and Hammarby FF 1.23 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Hammarby FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 18% | Draw 37% | Hammarby FF 45%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.