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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IF Elfsborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat IF Elfsborg 0-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.72 xG and Hammarby FF 1.31 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.70 / defence 0.96 against Hammarby FF attack 1.03 / defence 0.76, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 47% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 29%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Hammarby FF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.82 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights