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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Halmstad defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Halmstad beat IF Elfsborg 1-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.44 xG and Halmstad 1.06 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Halmstad outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.37 / defence 1.21 against Halmstad attack 0.65 / defence 1.28, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 67% | Draw 18% | Halmstad 15%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Halmstad win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Halmstad 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Halmstad's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Halmstad winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Halmstad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights