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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gais.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg beat Gais 2-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.49 xG and Gais 1.11 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gais landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.34 / defence 1.03 against Gais attack 0.84 / defence 0.80, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 46% | Draw 26% | Gais 28%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Gais 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.82 PPG, Gais 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights