IF Elfsborg 1-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 July 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.62 PPG across 8 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 1W 2D 0L from 3 Allsvenskan appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF (all games): 4W 1D 3L across 8 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.62 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.62 per game and conceding 1.12. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.62 vs 1.62 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 50% versus Djurgardens IF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 38% | Djurgardens IF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.13 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 0.956 / defence 1.095 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.830 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.109. Data: 8 IF Elfsborg games / 8 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 38% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 32%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Djurgardens IF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 67% | Djurgardens IF 25%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jul 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 38% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.13 / Djurgardens IF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 0.956 / def 1.095 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.830 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Djurgardens IF xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 19 July 2020 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 38% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.83x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.38
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.14
1.01
Djurgardens IF xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.01 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 4D 1L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.62 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.62 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.67 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 67%, Djurgardens IF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (IF Elfsborg) and 67% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 33% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 67% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Djurgardens IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.13 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 38% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 32%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 38%, Djurgardens IF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.62 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.