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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Djurgardens IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg beat Djurgardens IF 4-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.97 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.29 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Djurgardens IF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.56 / defence 1.03 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 53% | Draw 22% | Djurgardens IF 25%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.82 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights