IF Elfsborg 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
IF Elfsborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Borås Arena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Degerfors IF have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.40 for Degerfors IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Degerfors IF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours IF Elfsborg, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Degerfors IF — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 6–0 with IF Elfsborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IF Elfsborg and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 51% versus Degerfors IF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 56% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.33 xG and Degerfors IF 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.269 / defence 1.175 | Degerfors IF attack 0.868 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.139. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 IF Elfsborg games / 55 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 62% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 16%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Degerfors IF 6.25. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | Degerfors IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 62% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.33 / Degerfors IF 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.269 / def 1.175 | Degerfors IF attack 0.868 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Degerfors IF xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 62% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
Record (3 meetings): IF Elfsborg 3W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.27x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.87x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.64
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.49
1.16
Degerfors IF xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
10%
10.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
2%
62.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.16 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 26W 13D 16L from 55 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 29L across 55 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 14W 7D 6L from 27 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 4W 5D 18L across 27 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.05 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 26W 13D 16L in their last 55 games (1.65 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 15W 11D 29L in their last 55 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Degerfors IF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.81 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.63 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-6 on 1 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 52%, Degerfors IF 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (IF Elfsborg) and 48% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 48% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 48% of Degerfors IF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF finished level at 1-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.33 xG and Degerfors IF 1.16 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.27 / defence 1.18 against Degerfors IF attack 0.87 / defence 1.24, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 62% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 16%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 56%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.