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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IF Elfsborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BK Hacken beat IF Elfsborg 0-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.28 xG and BK Hacken 1.16 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 2.3 short of their projected output. BK Hacken outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.50 / defence 1.02 against BK Hacken attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 62% | Draw 20% | BK Hacken 18%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a BK Hacken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 60%, BK Hacken 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

BK Hacken's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.65 PPG, BK Hacken 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights