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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sirius cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sirius beat IF Brommapojkarna 2-4 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 2.06 xG and Sirius 1.81 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 1.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.24 / defence 1.33 against Sirius attack 1.04 / defence 1.20, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 44% | Draw 21% | Sirius 35%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 57%, Sirius 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Sirius's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.16 PPG, Sirius 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights