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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IF Brommapojkarna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Osters IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Brommapojkarna beat Osters IF 2-0 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.08 xG and Osters IF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osters IF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.74 / defence 1.22 against Osters IF attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 32% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 39%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 57%, Osters IF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Osters IF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.14 PPG, Osters IF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights