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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Malmo FF beat IF Brommapojkarna 2-3 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 0.83 xG and Malmo FF 1.35 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Malmo FF outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against Malmo FF attack 1.00 / defence 0.74, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 23% | Draw 28% | Malmo FF 49%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 56%, Malmo FF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Malmo FF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights