IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Kalmar FF travel to Grimsta IP to take on IF Brommapojkarna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Grimsta IP, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — IF Brommapojkarna are significantly better at Grimsta IP than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Kalmar FF have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 PPG, Kalmar FF 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Brommapojkarna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kalmar FF in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Kalmar FF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 60% versus Kalmar FF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 63% | Kalmar FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.79 xG and Kalmar FF 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.036 / defence 1.150 | Kalmar FF attack 0.998 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Data: 57 IF Brommapojkarna games / 57 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 45% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 30%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Kalmar FF 3.33. IF Brommapojkarna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Kalmar FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 45% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.79 / Kalmar FF 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.036 / def 1.150 | Kalmar FF attack 0.998 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Kalmar FF xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 45% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF?
Record (3 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 2W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Kalmar FF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 1.04x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
45%
2.21
25%
3.97
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.22
1.42
Kalmar FF xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
5%
20.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.42 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Brommapojkarna come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 14D 24L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kalmar FF sit at 1.19 PPG from 57 outings (19W 11D 27L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.25 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IF Brommapojkarna's home form reads 9W 8D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Kalmar FF have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.21 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 19W 14D 24L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 19W 11D 27L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Kalmar FF away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.25 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF?
From 5 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 3, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 57%, Kalmar FF 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for IF Brommapojkarna and 61% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 32% of games; Kalmar FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 61% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 61% of Kalmar FF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.79 xG and Kalmar FF 1.42 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.04 / defence 1.15 against Kalmar FF attack 1.00 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 45% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 30%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 63%, Kalmar FF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.25 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.