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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as IF Brommapojkarna defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Brommapojkarna beat IFK Varnamo 3-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.06 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.06 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 35% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 35%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 64%, IFK Varnamo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.15 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights