IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo meet at Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
IF Brommapojkarna (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
IF Brommapojkarna's home record at Grimsta IP: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — IF Brommapojkarna are significantly better at Grimsta IP than their overall form suggests.
IFK Varnamo have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Varnamo away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: IF Brommapojkarna 1W, IFK Varnamo 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
IF Brommapojkarna — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 60% versus IFK Varnamo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 64% | IFK Varnamo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.11 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.005 / defence 1.187 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.818 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.252. IFK Varnamo's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 IF Brommapojkarna games / 58 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 33% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 38%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | IFK Varnamo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IF Brommapojkarna 70% | IFK Varnamo 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 33% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.11 / IFK Varnamo 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.005 / def 1.187 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.818 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.22
IFK Varnamo xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 33% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo?
Record (3 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 1.00x the league average against IFK Varnamo's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.82x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
33%
3.07
30%
3.35
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.33
1.22
IFK Varnamo xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.22 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 19W 14D 25L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
IFK Varnamo's form line: 20W 12D 26L from 58 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.24 for IFK Varnamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 1.21 PPG from 29 outings (9W 8D 12L).
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 12W 7D 10L from 29 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.14 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 19W 14D 25L in their last 58 games (1.22 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 20W 12D 26L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Varnamo's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.21 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
2
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo?
From 6 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when IFK Varnamo 1-1 IF Brommapojkarna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 59%, IFK Varnamo 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 45% (IFK Varnamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 34%; IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 48% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 45% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out IF Brommapojkarna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.11 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.22 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.82 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 33% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 38%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 64%, IFK Varnamo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.22 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.