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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IF Brommapojkarna cruise to a comfortable 6-4 victory over IFK Norrkoping.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Brommapojkarna beat IFK Norrkoping 6-4 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.30 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.46 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 6-4 for 10 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 1.46 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 34% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 41%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 57%, IFK Norrkoping 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.13 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights