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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Goteborg beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-3 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 0.98 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.48 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.70 / defence 1.07 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 25% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 49%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 63%, IFK Goteborg 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights