IF Brommapojkarna 1-3 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees IFK Goteborg travel to Grimsta IP to take on IF Brommapojkarna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 June 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Brommapojkarna's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Grimsta IP this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Goteborg away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Brommapojkarna 0.90 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Brommapojkarna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IFK Goteborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IF Brommapojkarna, 2 for IFK Goteborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 4–3 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 60% versus IFK Goteborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 63% | IFK Goteborg 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 0.98 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.705 / defence 1.073 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.023 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.346. IF Brommapojkarna's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 IF Brommapojkarna games / 41 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 25% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 49%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Goteborg 2.04. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | IFK Goteborg 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 25% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 0.98 / IFK Goteborg 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.705 / def 1.073 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.023 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.48
IFK Goteborg xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 3 IFK Goteborg.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 25% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg?
Record (4 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 2W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating (0.70) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
25%
3.99
26%
3.81
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.46
1.48
IFK Goteborg xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
6%
17.46
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.48 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Brommapojkarna come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 14D 27L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, IFK Goteborg sit at 1.08 PPG from 60 outings (15W 20D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.18 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IF Brommapojkarna's home form reads 9W 8D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Goteborg have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (7W 10D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.10 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 15W 20D 25L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.17 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when IFK Goteborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when IFK Goteborg 2-1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 57%, IFK Goteborg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 47% (IFK Goteborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 33% of games; IFK Goteborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 53% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 47% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-3 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 0.98 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.48 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.70 / defence 1.07 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 25% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 49%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 63%, IFK Goteborg 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.