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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant IF Brommapojkarna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IF Elfsborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Brommapojkarna beat IF Elfsborg 3-0 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.76 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.26 / defence 1.43 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.89 / defence 0.91, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 33% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 43%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 57%, IF Elfsborg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with IF Brommapojkarna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights