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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IF Brommapojkarna 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.56 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 24% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 50%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 63%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights