Helsingborg 0-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus Varbergs BoIS FC in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 15 June 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 0.56 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.568 / away 1.215. Data: 0 Helsingborg games / 0 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 17% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 5.88 | Draw 3.23 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1.92. Varbergs BoIS FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Helsingborg's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Monday 15 Jun 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 17% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 30% | xG Helsingborg 0.56 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.568 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.56
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
30%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 June 2020 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Helsingborg 0 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 17% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 52% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.56. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (0.85x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 19.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (19.0%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
17%
5.78
31%
3.22
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.56
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
1.74
1.19
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
5.78
17%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.38
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
57%
1.74
Win to Nil
5%
18.96
30%
3.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 20.8 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.19 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Pre-Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-3 on 15 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Helsingborg
2
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Varbergs BoIS FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Helsingborg 0-3 at Olympia, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 0.56 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.19 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 17% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 52%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.