Helsingborg 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 5 as Helsingborg welcome Mjallby AIF to Olympia. Kick-off is set for Thursday 2 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helsingborg — All Games: 0W 1D 3L from 4 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.25 points per game. Last five: L L D L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Helsingborg have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Mjallby AIF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mjallby AIF — 0.75 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.25). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Helsingborg 0% | Mjallby AIF 50%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 50% | Mjallby AIF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.676 / defence 1.150 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.789 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.424. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjallby AIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Helsingborg games / 4 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 24% | Draw 34% | Mjallby AIF 42%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Mjallby AIF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 0% | Mjallby AIF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 24% | Draw 34% | Mjallby AIF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Helsingborg 0.92 / Mjallby AIF 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.676 / def 1.150 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.789 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Mjallby AIF xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 2 July 2020 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Helsingborg 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 24% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Helsingborg's attack rating (0.68) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
24%
4.23
34%
2.91
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.21
1.29
Mjallby AIF xG
4.23
24%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.29 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Helsingborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helsingborg heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helsingborg have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Early Season
Mjallby AIF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helsingborg
0
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Helsingborg 0-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Helsingborg 0% BTTS, Mjallby AIF 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Helsingborg) and 50% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 100% of games; Mjallby AIF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 50% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Helsingborg's recent games and 50% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Helsingborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Helsingborg 0-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.29 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Helsingborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.68 / defence 1.15 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.79 / defence 1.36, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 24% | Draw 34% | Mjallby AIF 42%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 50%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.25. Form held, and they took the win. Helsingborg conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.