Helsingborg 1-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Helsingborg host Kalmar FF at Olympia in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 9 September 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Helsingborg have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 games at Olympia this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kalmar FF — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF away from home this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Helsingborg at 1.00 PPG versus Kalmar FF's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Helsingborg have won 0, Kalmar FF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jun 2020, ended 0–4 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 56% versus Kalmar FF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 50% | Kalmar FF 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.54 xG and Kalmar FF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.951 / defence 1.075 | Kalmar FF attack 0.891 / defence 1.412. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.382. Kalmar FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.412 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Helsingborg games / 18 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 42% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 32%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Kalmar FF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 56% | Kalmar FF 44%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Sep 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 42% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Helsingborg 1.54 / Kalmar FF 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.951 / def 1.075 | Kalmar FF attack 0.891 / def 1.412 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Kalmar FF xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 9 September 2020 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF?
Helsingborg 1 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF part of?
Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 42% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Helsingborg and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Kalmar FF?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and Kalmar FF in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Kalmar FF (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.95x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.77
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.87
1.32
Kalmar FF xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
7%
14.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.32 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helsingborg come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 7D 8L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kalmar FF sit at 0.78 PPG from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 0.89 PPG, Kalmar FF on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helsingborg's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Helsingborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kalmar FF have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helsingborg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.17 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 3W 7D 8L in their last 18 games (0.89 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Kalmar FF away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.33 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jun 2020, when Kalmar FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Helsingborg
2
Draws
4
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Kalmar FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 0, Kalmar FF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2025, when Kalmar FF 2-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 56%, Kalmar FF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Helsingborg) and 56% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games; Kalmar FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 44% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Helsingborg's recent games and 56% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg and Kalmar FF finished level at 1-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.54 xG and Kalmar FF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Kalmar FF attack 0.89 / defence 1.41, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 42% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 32%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 50%, Kalmar FF 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 0.89 PPG, Kalmar FF 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.