Helsingborg 1-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 2 August 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Helsingborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 1W 2D 2L this season (5 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hammarby FF (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Helsingborg, 1.20 for Hammarby FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 36% of cases; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 36% versus Hammarby FF 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 36% | Hammarby FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.10 xG and Hammarby FF 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.671 / defence 1.052 | Hammarby FF attack 0.783 / defence 1.447. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.210. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hammarby FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.447 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Helsingborg games / 11 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 38% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 32%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Hammarby FF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 20% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 38% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Helsingborg 1.10 / Hammarby FF 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.671 / def 1.052 | Hammarby FF attack 0.783 / def 1.447 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hammarby FF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 2 August 2020 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF?
Helsingborg 1 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 38% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Helsingborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helsingborg and Hammarby FF in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.67x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (0.78x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.34
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.10
1.00
Hammarby FF xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.00 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Helsingborg come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 6D 4L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Helsingborg's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helsingborg are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.09 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 1W 6D 4L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.00 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 November 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helsingborg
2
Draws
2
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Hammarby FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2022, when Helsingborg 0-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 20%, Hammarby FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 20% for Helsingborg and 100% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 60% of games; Hammarby FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 60% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 20% of Helsingborg's matches and 100% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Helsingborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympia, Regular Season - 12, as Helsingborg and Hammarby FF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.10 xG and Hammarby FF 1.00 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.67 / defence 1.05 against Hammarby FF attack 0.78 / defence 1.45, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 38% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 32%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 36%, Hammarby FF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.