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Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Osters IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat Osters IF 4-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.35 xG and Osters IF 0.81 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osters IF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against Osters IF attack 0.71 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 22%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 53%, Osters IF 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Osters IF's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights