Hammarby FF 3-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hammarby FF and Orebro SK meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hammarby FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Tele2 Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Orebro SK have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 40% versus Orebro SK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hammarby FF 50% | Orebro SK 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 0.99 xG and Orebro SK 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 0.766 / defence 0.910 | Orebro SK attack 0.768 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.214. Hammarby FF's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Hammarby FF games / 10 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 38% | Draw 32% | Orebro SK 30%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Orebro SK 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 20% | Orebro SK 80%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 38% | Draw 32% | Orebro SK 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Hammarby FF 0.99 / Orebro SK 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 0.766 / def 0.910 | Orebro SK attack 0.768 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Orebro SK xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 July 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK part of?
Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 38% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Hammarby FF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Orebro SK in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 0.77x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.77x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
38%
2.66
32%
3.09
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
1.84
0.85
Orebro SK xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 13.5 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.85 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hammarby FF come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 3D 4L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.30 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hammarby FF's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hammarby FF are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.90 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Orebro SK away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.60 PPG; Orebro SK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Hammarby FF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 3-0 on 27 Jul 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hammarby FF
0
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 3, Orebro SK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Hammarby FF 3-2 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Orebro SK?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 20%, Orebro SK 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Hammarby FF and 40% for Orebro SK.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Hammarby FF have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 80% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 40% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Orebro SK 3-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 0.99 xG and Orebro SK 0.85 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 0.77 / defence 0.91 against Orebro SK attack 0.77 / defence 1.16, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 38% | Draw 32% | Orebro SK 30%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 50%, Orebro SK 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Orebro SK's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.20 PPG, Orebro SK 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.