Hammarby FF 2-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 37%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Mjallby AIF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mjallby AIF are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 67% and Mjallby AIF 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 67% | Mjallby AIF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.40 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.056 / defence 1.033 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.075 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.120. Data: 31 Hammarby FF games / 31 Mjallby AIF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 32% | Mjallby AIF 30%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Mjallby AIF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 80% | Mjallby AIF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 32% | Mjallby AIF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Hammarby FF 1.40 / Mjallby AIF 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.056 / def 1.033 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.075 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Mjallby AIF xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF 2 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 37% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
37%
2.67
32%
3.08
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.65
1.24
Mjallby AIF xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.24 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 11D 9L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.57 PPG from 30 outings (13W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.37 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hammarby FF's home form reads 4W 9D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.60 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Mjallby AIF in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 10W 11D 9L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 13W 8D 9L in their last 30 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.40 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 60%, Mjallby AIF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hammarby FF) and 53% (Mjallby AIF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hammarby FF's games and 60% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 53% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Mjallby AIF 2-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.40 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.24 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.07 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 32% | Mjallby AIF 30%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 67%, Mjallby AIF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.37 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.