Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 37%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Mjallby AIF at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF at 3Arena this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mjallby AIF are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 2.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Hammarby FF, 4 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 43% versus Mjallby AIF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | Mjallby AIF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.45 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.112 / defence 0.911 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.106 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.412. Data: 30 Hammarby FF games / 30 Mjallby AIF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 36%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Mjallby AIF 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Hammarby FF 40% | Mjallby AIF 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Hammarby FF 1.45 / Mjallby AIF 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.112 / def 0.911 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.106 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Mjallby AIF xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 37% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (9 meetings): Hammarby FF 4W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 4W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
37%
2.70
27%
3.67
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.87
1.42
Mjallby AIF xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.42 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF come into this having played 60 games, going 35W 11D 14L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 2.08 PPG from 60 outings (37W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.93 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 2.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hammarby FF's home form reads 21W 5D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.87 points per game from 30 outings (17W 5D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.68 scored and 0.88 conceded. Hammarby FF's scoring rate against Mjallby AIF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF in 60%.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 35W 11D 14L in their last 60 games (1.93 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 37W 14D 9L in their last 60 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.27 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 43%, Mjallby AIF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hammarby FF) and 57% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 53% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hammarby FF's matches and 57% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Mjallby AIF 3-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.45 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.42 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mjallby AIF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.11 / defence 0.91 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.11 / defence 0.87, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 36%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 57%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.93 PPG, Mjallby AIF 2.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.