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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat Hammarby FF 1-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.60 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.30 / defence 0.72 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.34 / defence 0.87, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 44% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 32%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 53%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights