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Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Malmo FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat Malmo FF 2-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.28 xG and Malmo FF 0.76 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.37 / defence 0.74 against Malmo FF attack 0.88 / defence 0.71, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 29% | Malmo FF 22%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 53%, Malmo FF 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.63. Form was overturned, with Hammarby FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights