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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kalmar FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat Kalmar FF 2-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.90 xG and Kalmar FF 0.88 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.42 / defence 0.82 against Kalmar FF attack 0.70 / defence 1.21, drawn from 42/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 78% | Draw 14% | Kalmar FF 8%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, Kalmar FF 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kalmar FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.93 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights