🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out IFK Varnamo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.03 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.73 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.20 / defence 0.73 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.78 / defence 1.30, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 67% | Draw 21% | IFK Varnamo 12%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 50%, IFK Varnamo 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights