Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 89% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees IFK Goteborg travel to 3Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 8W 1D 1L at 3Arena — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at 3Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 1.90 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Hammarby FF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 7 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 1 for IFK Goteborg, with 2 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
The historical record gives Hammarby FF a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 49% versus IFK Goteborg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | IFK Goteborg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 3.72 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.490 / defence 0.624 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.866 / defence 1.566. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.490 — their λ of 3.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IFK Goteborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.566 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.624 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Hammarby FF games / 49 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 89% | Draw 8% | IFK Goteborg 3%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.12 | Draw 12.50 | IFK Goteborg 33.33. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (89%) — a 86pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 4.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 89% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 40% | IFK Goteborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 89% | Draw 8% | IFK Goteborg 3% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 50% | xG Hammarby FF 3.72 / IFK Goteborg 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.490 / def 0.624 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.866 / def 1.566 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (89%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.72
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.71
IFK Goteborg xG
50%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 3Arena.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 89% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 3% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Record (10 meetings): Hammarby FF 7W | Draws 2 | IFK Goteborg 1W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.49x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (1.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.72. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 10.2%. Close behind: 4-0 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
89%
1.12
8%
13.09
3%
32.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.72
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
4.43
0.71
IFK Goteborg xG
1.12
89%
Home win
13.09
8%
Draw
32.05
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
2%
41.43
Win to Nil
44%
2.27
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 3.72 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.71 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 4.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 89%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 30W 8D 11L from 49 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 19L across 49 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 19W 2D 3L from 24 games — 2.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 11W 4D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.33 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 30W 8D 11L in their last 49 games (2.00 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 8D 19L in their last 49 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.46 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 7, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 42%, IFK Goteborg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Hammarby FF and 58% for IFK Goteborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 42% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Hammarby FF's matches and 58% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.