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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of IFK Goteborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat IFK Goteborg 4-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.48 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Goteborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 47% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 27%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 53%, IFK Goteborg 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights