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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.25 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 0.99 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.07 / defence 0.71 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.15 / defence 0.85, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 42% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 29%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 49%, IF Brommapojkarna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights