🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gais beat Hammarby FF 1-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.36 xG and Gais 1.20 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.15 / defence 0.77 against Gais attack 1.17 / defence 0.85, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 40% | Draw 27% | Gais 33%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 51%, Gais 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Gais's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.96 PPG, Gais 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights