Hammarby FF 0-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Gais at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hammarby FF — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 6W 2D 2L at Tele2 Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gais have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hammarby FF, 0 for Gais and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Gais in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 51% versus Gais 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 61% | Gais 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.02 xG and Gais 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.191 / defence 0.946 | Gais attack 0.756 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.359. Data: 49 Hammarby FF games / 19 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 62% | Draw 21% | Gais 17%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Gais 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 60% | Gais 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 62% | Draw 21% | Gais 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Hammarby FF 2.02 / Gais 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.191 / def 0.946 | Gais attack 0.756 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Gais xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Gais kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 August 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Gais?
Hammarby FF 0 - 0 Gais.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Gais part of?
Hammarby FF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 62% chance of winning, Gais a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hammarby FF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): Hammarby FF 0W | Draws 1 | Gais 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Gais in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Gais (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.19x the league average against Gais's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.79
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.00
0.97
Gais xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
2%
43.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.97 for Gais, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Gais?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 22W 13D 14L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais's form line: 27W 7D 15L from 49 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.61 PPG, Gais on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.00 PPG from 24 outings (14W 6D 4L).
On the road, Gais have gone 11W 4D 9L from 24 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.73 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Gais in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Gais in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 22W 13D 14L in their last 49 games (1.61 PPG), while Gais have gone 27W 7D 15L in their last 49 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Gais away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.00 PPG; Gais away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gais in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Gais go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Gais specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
3
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Gais?
From 5 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 0, Gais have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Gais 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 67%, Gais 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Hammarby FF and 62% for Gais. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais in 38%; Gais in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hammarby FF's games and 46% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hammarby FF's matches and 62% of Gais's.
Do Hammarby FF and Gais tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gais in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hammarby FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF and Gais finished level at 0-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.02 xG and Gais 0.97 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Gais landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.19 / defence 0.95 against Gais attack 0.76 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 62% | Draw 21% | Gais 17%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 61%, Gais 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gais's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.61 PPG, Gais 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.