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Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Djurgardens IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat Djurgardens IF 2-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.53 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Djurgardens IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.30 / defence 0.81 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.93 / defence 0.85, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 50% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 24%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 53%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights