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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of BK Hacken.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat BK Hacken 4-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.61 xG and BK Hacken 1.11 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.27 / defence 0.80 against BK Hacken attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 26%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 55%, BK Hacken 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hammarby FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

BK Hacken's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights